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PHEVs produce nearly five times more global warming emissions than official data indicate, according to a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit just 19% less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a non-profit organization. This contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied information from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while lab-reported figures are falling,” said a senior analyst participating in the study. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Key Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles travelled in electric mode compared to overall distance. They found that just a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, while lab assumptions suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when running in electric mode, emission levels were significantly higher than official estimates. That happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate independently, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for almost one-third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

Based on estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several large automaker companies to avoid over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 more per year in running expenses than is estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The strong statements that automakers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the mark,” commented a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and operating expenses.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn again into political debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A planned ban on sales of new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car sector and resistance from EU countries with large car manufacturing.

Some high-level politicians have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

An external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the report a “highly valuable addition” after years in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little information to accurately assess real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “All regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and in the light of this evidence.”